The International Trade Centre (ITC)-a development agency fully dedicated to supporting the internationalization of SMEs-estimates that despite the Covid-19 pandemic, Tanzania’s coffee exports are predicted to rise continuously over the coming years.
In its recent study titled “Tanzania’s Trade in Times of Covid-19: an Analysis for the Avocado, Coffee, Spices and Tea Sector” the ITC provides an overview of Tanzania’s exports of coffee prior to and during Covid-19, and estimates their evolution over the next few years.
Tanzania Coffee Exports Prior Covid-19
Tanzania’s yearly exports of coffee averaged USD 157.1 million in the period 2014-2018.
Tanzania exports coffee to all world regions, with the EU being the largest market receiving 40% of the exports.
Within the EU, the most important destinations include Italy, Germany, and Belgium. Other main markets for Tanzanian coffee are Japan (34%) and the United States (17%). African countries account for 9% of Tanzanian coffee
exports, led by Uganda and South Africa.
The value of world trade in coffee increased strongly between 2001 and 2011. After a drop in 2012 and 2013, it has remained stable in recent years, at more than four times its 2001 value.
Tanzanian coffee exports followed a similar trend, peaking in 2011 and stabilizing afterward. However, growth was less pronounced than for world exports. Tanzania’s exports in 2019 reached 230% of their 2001 value. As a result, Tanzania’s share in world exports has decreased since 2001, from 1% to 0.5%.
Tanzania Coffee Exports During Covid-19
World coffee exports were close to their 2019 values throughout early 2020. For Tanzania, this was the case as well in April and June, but not in March (-26%) and May (-66%).
Results need to be interpreted with caution, but data points in April and Jun suggest that coffee exports could remain stable despite Covid-19.
Tanzania Coffee Exports During Covid-19
Regardless of the Covid-19 pandemic, Tanzania’s coffee exports are predicted to rise continuously over the coming years.
In 2020, they are expected to reach USD 204 million, and in 2021, to outperform their record value of USD 218 million from 2011.
By 2024, projections suggest that exports will climb to USD 287 million – USD 841,000 or 0.3% less than the value expected based on pre-pandemic GDP forecasts.
